Area 20 is the area that my office services. It includes West Hialeah, Hialeah Gardens, Miami Lakes, West Miami Gardens, and Palm Springs North. And yes, there is reason to be optimistic about the real estate market in Area 20.
Months of inventory based on closed sales sales declined from 43.4 in April 2008 to 15.2 in April 2009. In other words, we have less than half the inventory of unsold homes on the market then we did a year ago. The lesser the inventory the quicker we get to the tipping point where demand we be in line with supply, and when prices will stop depreciating.
Comparing April 2009 to April 2008-the number of new listings declined 31.5%, the number of closed transactions increased 95.9% and the number of properties going under contract increased 185.9% (if we look at this same figure from January of 2008 the increase is even larger-245.3%). This is Huge!
If you're selling, then these stats prove that there are many buyers out there, and as long as you're priced competitively, YOU WILL SELL. And if you're considering buying, then rest assured that if this level of market activity continues, prices will stabilize sooner then later. Your opportunity to negotiate a good deal is NOW...
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Monday, May 11, 2009
A 200% Improvement...
I'll keep this one short. In Area 20, which is the area that my office services(Miami Lakes, West Hialeah, Hialeah Gardens, Pine Springs North), Pending Sales are up over 200% over this time last year. In other words, we have over 200% more properties that are under contract for sale. This is an awesome improvement in market activity, and an early sign that there is light at the end of the tunnel. While we still have many months of inventory to absorb we are seeing the early effects of low rates, great prices, and first time buyers taking advantage of the $8000.00 tax credit.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Inflation's effect on your buying decision
Regardless of one's opinion of the recent financial bailouts, the fact is that they are happening, and by all indications will continue to happen. We're simply printing paper! Everyone knows it. And the end result of printing all of this money will be inflation. It is the inevitable result of overprinting money. In inflationary times, cash, bonds, and stocks do poorly. Only two investments thrive: precious metals like gold, and real estate. When inflation hits the Federal Reserve will raise rates to keep it in check. This is their only method of controlling it. The worst case scenario is stagflation, where we have low growth AND high inflation. We had this in the 70's, and stocks performed poorly that decade as a result. However, anyone who bought a home in the 70's can certainly attest to the fact that their property is worth a lot more today. When this inflationary cycle will arrive is a matter of debate, yet it will arrive! Hence, we are sitting on the very best opportunity to buy a home for many years now:
- Rates are at historic lows-when inflation arrives they will be high. By 1981 rates were at 18%
- Sellers are motivated to sell
- When inflation returns, the smart money will move back into real estate. Subsequently, sellers will have more options and will be less inclined to negotiate their asking prices.
In short, RIGHT NOW you can negotiate the best price, with the lowest rates, and hedge against the coming inflation. There is no other investment with all of this going for it. And let's not forget the tax write-offs!
Could I be wrong? Sure! Yet the above mentioned scenario is not only plausible and likely. It also has a historical precedent. Our economy moves in cycles, and it would be fool-hearty to think that inflation will never come back. It is the likely result of printing excess amounts of money.
I short, the case for buying now is simply overwhelming...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Over the weekend...
Over the weekend there were an unusually high number of inquiries for my listings, regardless of price-point. A situation that I am confirming with my colleagues that is becoming increasingly common for buyers in the 500K+ range is that since these buyers typically need Jumbo Loans (over 423K/FHA max.), they are having a harder time getting approved than in prior years, or they do not have or simply do not want to invest the typically required 20% down. Whatever the case, I am optimistic that this up tick in consumer inquiries will continue for a number or reasons:
-The stock market has shown some positive signs
-The current administration has unveiled a comprehensive plan to reduce the rate of foreclosures, thus reducing the volume of inventory coming on the market
-The $8000.00 credit for first time buyers means that those (first home sellers) will now be looking for their next home (typically 450-650K).
It's important to note that the positive psychological effect of a perceived multi prong approach to our current housing woes is more important than the actual initiatives themselves. We continue to be a consumer driven economy, so positive consumer sentiment is paramount.
This is not to imply that we are at the bottom of our present market cycle, yet these conditions are starting to foster the "perception of value" that this market has long been missing since 2006.
Full steam ahead, I say!
-The stock market has shown some positive signs
-The current administration has unveiled a comprehensive plan to reduce the rate of foreclosures, thus reducing the volume of inventory coming on the market
-The $8000.00 credit for first time buyers means that those (first home sellers) will now be looking for their next home (typically 450-650K).
It's important to note that the positive psychological effect of a perceived multi prong approach to our current housing woes is more important than the actual initiatives themselves. We continue to be a consumer driven economy, so positive consumer sentiment is paramount.
This is not to imply that we are at the bottom of our present market cycle, yet these conditions are starting to foster the "perception of value" that this market has long been missing since 2006.
Full steam ahead, I say!
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
A construction boom? Where? Now?
One of Miami-Dade County's best kept secrets for buyers looking for a home in the 500K to 1.3 million dollar range is Hialeah Gardens Estates. As a matter of fact, most people have never heard of it! It is a rare combination of both urban and country living unlike anything else in the immediate area. It is a quaint secluded neighborhood in Northwestern Dade County of only 200+ homes with two city parks on either side and has one of the lowest tax millage rates in the County.
LOCATION
In real estate the mantra has always been location location location. Here, The Estates most certainly fits the bill. This neighborhood is easily accessed in just 30 seconds from I75 with immediate access to Rt 826 and the Florida Turnpike. Furthermore, one has immediate access to an array of shopping centers including Florida's largest Home Depot. Additionally, dining and entertainment are all within a few minutes drive. And lastly, both the major airports, and down town Miami are only 30 minutes away. Traffic and congestion are virtually non-existent here.
HOMES
For starters, the initial appeal of The Estates is in the size of the lots. They range from .25 acres to 5 acres. This layout immediately lends itself to an ample separation between homes. Zero lot lines are non existent here. Additionally, horses are permitted on those properties that have at least an acre of land. The homes generally range in size from three bedroom 3000 sq. ft. homes to 6+ bedroom residences with 6000 sq. ft.+ of living area.
STATE OF THE MARKET
Market conditions being what they are, the long range prognosis for The Estates is excellent. Firstly, the foreclosure rate is very low with only three bank-owned homes brought to market in the past 12 months. Also, the general turnover rate of homes is also very low, subsequently contributing to overall neighborhood stability. And unlike the conventional market wisdom, The Estates is presently undergoing a construction boom! There are 20+ homes under construction which, in my estimate, will range in market value from $650,000 to $1.3 million at today's market prices. It's important to note that these home owners do not have to build at this time. They are choosing to do so, simply because they realize that a home in Hialeah Gardens Estates is a worthwhile investment that is sure to be in high demand. In short, now is the time to buy a home here at a great price!
LOCATION
In real estate the mantra has always been location location location. Here, The Estates most certainly fits the bill. This neighborhood is easily accessed in just 30 seconds from I75 with immediate access to Rt 826 and the Florida Turnpike. Furthermore, one has immediate access to an array of shopping centers including Florida's largest Home Depot. Additionally, dining and entertainment are all within a few minutes drive. And lastly, both the major airports, and down town Miami are only 30 minutes away. Traffic and congestion are virtually non-existent here.
HOMES
For starters, the initial appeal of The Estates is in the size of the lots. They range from .25 acres to 5 acres. This layout immediately lends itself to an ample separation between homes. Zero lot lines are non existent here. Additionally, horses are permitted on those properties that have at least an acre of land. The homes generally range in size from three bedroom 3000 sq. ft. homes to 6+ bedroom residences with 6000 sq. ft.+ of living area.
STATE OF THE MARKET
Market conditions being what they are, the long range prognosis for The Estates is excellent. Firstly, the foreclosure rate is very low with only three bank-owned homes brought to market in the past 12 months. Also, the general turnover rate of homes is also very low, subsequently contributing to overall neighborhood stability. And unlike the conventional market wisdom, The Estates is presently undergoing a construction boom! There are 20+ homes under construction which, in my estimate, will range in market value from $650,000 to $1.3 million at today's market prices. It's important to note that these home owners do not have to build at this time. They are choosing to do so, simply because they realize that a home in Hialeah Gardens Estates is a worthwhile investment that is sure to be in high demand. In short, now is the time to buy a home here at a great price!
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
The importance of a comprehensive internet presence
According to recent stats, 85% of all buyers of real estate begin their home search in the Internet; and that number comtinues to climb! This phenomena has fundamentally changed the real estate brokerage business. Coldwell Banker, for example, has dramatically increased it's online marketing, while simultaneously scaling back from ineffective print media. As a matter of fact, most of the prospective buyer inquiries for the properties that I market originate from online sources. A recent home that I sold was bought sight unseen, with the buyer relying on the extensive online presentation of the property alone!
Considering this, it only makes perfect sense for a prospective home seller to employ the services of a brokerage that can best expose their property to as many would-be Internet buyers as possible. Below is by far the best presentation of an online home marketing strategy that I've ever seen. I'd welcome your thoughts on it...
http://www.coldwellbanker.net/flipBooks/fl/
Clinking of the individual web shots will actually open up those sites! Enjoy...
Considering this, it only makes perfect sense for a prospective home seller to employ the services of a brokerage that can best expose their property to as many would-be Internet buyers as possible. Below is by far the best presentation of an online home marketing strategy that I've ever seen. I'd welcome your thoughts on it...
http://www.coldwellbanker.net/flipBooks/fl/
Clinking of the individual web shots will actually open up those sites! Enjoy...
Friday, March 6, 2009
Foreclosure assistance?
U.S.News & World ReportI Pay My Mortgage: What's in the Housing Bailout For Me?Friday March 6, 11:00 am ET By Luke Mullins
As Uncle Sam issued check after to check to keep Wall Street bankers afloat, American taxpayers--who were picking up the tab--grew increasingly resentful of paying for others' mistakes. But when President Barack Obama announced a $75 billion plan to lower monthly mortgage payments for up to four million distressed homeowners in mid-February, frustration turned to rage. Just ask Rick Santelli, whose now-infamous rant against government subsidization of "the losers' mortgages" turned the obscure CNBC analyst into a household name, while underscoring the nation's growing distaste for bailouts. But the Obama administration has pitched its housing fix as one that would help all homeowners--not just troubled ones. So after fresh details of the plan were released Wednesday, it's time to ask: I'm a responsible homeowner; what's in it for me?
1. How big is the foreclosure problem? Foreclosure filings were reported on more than 2.3 million American properties last year, according to RealtyTrac. That's one for every 54 housing units and an 81 percent jump from 2007. In a recent address, President Obama said nearly six million American homes are either in--or at risk of--foreclosure. And on Thursday, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that more than 11 percent of mortgages outstanding were either past due or in foreclosure during the fourth quarter of 2008.That's a record high.
2. Who qualifies for Obama's housing plan? The $75 billion goes toward reducing mortgage payments for as many as four million "at-risk" homeowners. The program is only available for owner-occupied, principal residences with mortgages that originated before Jan. 1, 2009. To qualify, the borrower's monthly mortgage payments must exceed 31 percent of their gross monthly income. In addition, they must also have undergone some type of financial hardship--such as a loss of income--that puts them at risk of default. While you don't need to be delinquent on your mortgage to qualify, borrowers who are comfortably making their mortgage payments won't be eligible.
3. I don't qualify. How does this help me? Many Americans who purchased homes they could reasonably afford and made their payments on time are understandably upset at seeing neighbors who made reckless decisions bailed out on their dime. But the Obama administration argues that keeping people in their homes is in the best interest of all homeowners, since foreclosures--which can blight communities and nurture crime--can drive down property values for everyone. "One study in Chicago found that a foreclosed home reduces the price of nearby homes by as much as 9 percent," the president recently said. Although he considers the 9 percent figure too high, Richard Moody, the chief economist at Mission Residential, says Obama's argument is sound. "If you were to go sell your house, the first thing the realtor is going to do when they try to figure out a listing price is to look at [comparable homes in your neighborhood]," Moody says. "And if you've got all these depressed property values, that is going to definitely harm the sales value of your home." As such, if Obama's housing plan succeeds in reducing foreclosures for troubled borrowers--and that's a huge if--it may help to bolster the values of other homes as well.
4. What incentive do I have to keep paying my mortgage? A home foreclosure is an ugly stain on a credit report, and it can remain there for as long as seven years. "It's right up there with a bankruptcy," says Gail Cunningham, the spokeswoman for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. With banks tightening their lending standards in the face of higher delinquencies, it's a particularly bad time to ruin your credit. If you have a home foreclosure on your credit report, you're likely to have a difficult time getting any type of new credit these days--from a credit card to a new mortgage.
5. I'm not in trouble now, but how can I protect myself from the threat of foreclosure? Factors that can lead to foreclosure include unemployment, exploding-rate mortgages, and reckless discretionary spending. Although homeowners may have less control over their employment situation, by addressing these other factors, they can put themselves in a better position to avoid foreclosure should they suffer job loss. Julia Rodgers, a mortgage advisor with the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, says homeowners should make sure they have sufficient savings set aside to pay their mortgage in the event of the unexpected. "Fallback savings is critical," Rodgers says. "At least have three months of your mortgage payments saved." In setting aside such savings, families should institute a household budget and review their online bank statements regularly to ensure they aren't spending wastefully. "A lot of my clients have $300 to $400 in bank fees alone," Rodgers says. "In this climate, we have to be extremely aware of where our money is going."
Consumers with adjustable-rate mortgages should see if they are eligible to refinance into a fixed-rate home loan, while those who already have fixed-rate loans should see if they can refinance into a lower rate. In doing so, consumers should first obtain their credit report and see if their mortgage is owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, Rodgers says. Those with Fannie or Freddie loans may be eligible to refinance into a lower rate through a second component of Obama's housing plan. "If you can, refinance," says Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "The rates are low." Thirty-year fixed-mortgage rates averaged an attractive 5.15 percent for the week ending March 5, according to Freddie Mac.
6. Is there a silver lining in this mess? It's nearly impossible to spot any sort of silver lining in the current housing mess. But if there's anything good to come out of this, it's the hope that homeowners, lenders, regulators, and policymakers will learn from their mistakes and ensure that mortgages going forward will be properly underwritten and affordable. By overlooking the lessons of the crisis, we risk going through this devastating cycle again in the future.
As Uncle Sam issued check after to check to keep Wall Street bankers afloat, American taxpayers--who were picking up the tab--grew increasingly resentful of paying for others' mistakes. But when President Barack Obama announced a $75 billion plan to lower monthly mortgage payments for up to four million distressed homeowners in mid-February, frustration turned to rage. Just ask Rick Santelli, whose now-infamous rant against government subsidization of "the losers' mortgages" turned the obscure CNBC analyst into a household name, while underscoring the nation's growing distaste for bailouts. But the Obama administration has pitched its housing fix as one that would help all homeowners--not just troubled ones. So after fresh details of the plan were released Wednesday, it's time to ask: I'm a responsible homeowner; what's in it for me?
1. How big is the foreclosure problem? Foreclosure filings were reported on more than 2.3 million American properties last year, according to RealtyTrac. That's one for every 54 housing units and an 81 percent jump from 2007. In a recent address, President Obama said nearly six million American homes are either in--or at risk of--foreclosure. And on Thursday, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that more than 11 percent of mortgages outstanding were either past due or in foreclosure during the fourth quarter of 2008.That's a record high.
2. Who qualifies for Obama's housing plan? The $75 billion goes toward reducing mortgage payments for as many as four million "at-risk" homeowners. The program is only available for owner-occupied, principal residences with mortgages that originated before Jan. 1, 2009. To qualify, the borrower's monthly mortgage payments must exceed 31 percent of their gross monthly income. In addition, they must also have undergone some type of financial hardship--such as a loss of income--that puts them at risk of default. While you don't need to be delinquent on your mortgage to qualify, borrowers who are comfortably making their mortgage payments won't be eligible.
3. I don't qualify. How does this help me? Many Americans who purchased homes they could reasonably afford and made their payments on time are understandably upset at seeing neighbors who made reckless decisions bailed out on their dime. But the Obama administration argues that keeping people in their homes is in the best interest of all homeowners, since foreclosures--which can blight communities and nurture crime--can drive down property values for everyone. "One study in Chicago found that a foreclosed home reduces the price of nearby homes by as much as 9 percent," the president recently said. Although he considers the 9 percent figure too high, Richard Moody, the chief economist at Mission Residential, says Obama's argument is sound. "If you were to go sell your house, the first thing the realtor is going to do when they try to figure out a listing price is to look at [comparable homes in your neighborhood]," Moody says. "And if you've got all these depressed property values, that is going to definitely harm the sales value of your home." As such, if Obama's housing plan succeeds in reducing foreclosures for troubled borrowers--and that's a huge if--it may help to bolster the values of other homes as well.
4. What incentive do I have to keep paying my mortgage? A home foreclosure is an ugly stain on a credit report, and it can remain there for as long as seven years. "It's right up there with a bankruptcy," says Gail Cunningham, the spokeswoman for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. With banks tightening their lending standards in the face of higher delinquencies, it's a particularly bad time to ruin your credit. If you have a home foreclosure on your credit report, you're likely to have a difficult time getting any type of new credit these days--from a credit card to a new mortgage.
5. I'm not in trouble now, but how can I protect myself from the threat of foreclosure? Factors that can lead to foreclosure include unemployment, exploding-rate mortgages, and reckless discretionary spending. Although homeowners may have less control over their employment situation, by addressing these other factors, they can put themselves in a better position to avoid foreclosure should they suffer job loss. Julia Rodgers, a mortgage advisor with the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, says homeowners should make sure they have sufficient savings set aside to pay their mortgage in the event of the unexpected. "Fallback savings is critical," Rodgers says. "At least have three months of your mortgage payments saved." In setting aside such savings, families should institute a household budget and review their online bank statements regularly to ensure they aren't spending wastefully. "A lot of my clients have $300 to $400 in bank fees alone," Rodgers says. "In this climate, we have to be extremely aware of where our money is going."
Consumers with adjustable-rate mortgages should see if they are eligible to refinance into a fixed-rate home loan, while those who already have fixed-rate loans should see if they can refinance into a lower rate. In doing so, consumers should first obtain their credit report and see if their mortgage is owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, Rodgers says. Those with Fannie or Freddie loans may be eligible to refinance into a lower rate through a second component of Obama's housing plan. "If you can, refinance," says Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "The rates are low." Thirty-year fixed-mortgage rates averaged an attractive 5.15 percent for the week ending March 5, according to Freddie Mac.
6. Is there a silver lining in this mess? It's nearly impossible to spot any sort of silver lining in the current housing mess. But if there's anything good to come out of this, it's the hope that homeowners, lenders, regulators, and policymakers will learn from their mistakes and ensure that mortgages going forward will be properly underwritten and affordable. By overlooking the lessons of the crisis, we risk going through this devastating cycle again in the future.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)